Reuters/Zogby Poll: Dems Hold Leads in Races for Key House GOP Seats as Republicans grapple with sex scandal

Democrats hold leads in races for 11 out of 15 key Republican-held House seats, the first in a series of Reuters/Zogby tracking polls shows. This sets the stage for a full-tilt battle for control of Congress, as the GOP House leadership faces mounting pressure from a congressional sex scandal.

The Democratic edge includes leads in three of five open seats where well-known Republicans are on the way out – some to seek higher office and some because of scandal. The race for the Illinois seat occupied by GOP icon Henry Hyde, who is retiring after 22 years in the House, is led by Democrat Tammy Duckworth, who holds a 43% to 38% lead over Republican Peter Roskar.

The Republican is losing in the race to hold the Ohio seat held by Republican Bob Ney, the high-profile, once-powerful committee chairman who abandoned his reelection bid after recently pleading guilty to accepting money and gifts in an influence-peddling scandal. In that race, Democrat Zack Space leads Republican Joy Padgett, 45% to 36%. Padgett faces tough sledding in a state where the GOP has dominated for more than a decade but which has fallen on hard times because of scandals, including the Ney affair and another involving the administration of Gov. Bob Taft.

The Democratic edge is such that their candidates lead in seven of the nine House districts that contain Republican advantages in party identification. In the other six House races included in the Reuters/Zogby package of surveys, Democrats lead in four.

In other reliably GOP districts where incumbent Republicans are running for re-election, the Reuters/Zogby package of polling shows that this year they are trailing significantly. In usually conservative Indiana, Republican incumbent Mike Sodrel trails Democratic challenger Baron Hill, 46% to 38%. Just 39% said Sodrel deserves to be re-elected, while 45% in Indiana’s 9^th District said it is time for someone new. In Indiana’s 2^nd District, another Republican faces serious trouble: Incumbent Chris Chocola trails Democratic challenger Joe Donnelly, 49% to 39%.