Santorum/Casey Race Tightens
U.S. SEN. Rick Santorum has slashed Democratic challenger Bob Casey Jr.'s once- double-digit lead and is now just 6 percentage points back, according to the latest Daily News/CN8 Keystone Poll. (See the complete poll results here (PDF))
"Everybody expected this race to tighten. Nobody expected it to tighten this quickly," said G. Terry Madonna, professor of public affairs at Franklin & Marshall College and director of the poll.
The survey of 578 registered voters conducted last week showed state treasurer Casey, who is expected to easily win the Democratic primary, as the choice of 47 percent to 41 percent for Santorum.
The margin of error for the poll was 4.1 percent.
In November, Casey led the Republican incumbent by 51 percent to 35 percent.
posted by EAPrez @ 1:52 PM
1 Comments
1 Comments:
Casey is not the Democratic challenger that will be decided May 16th. He is not expected to easily win anything by me. In fact both of his opponents have polled above the amount of support they would need to win. Chuck has done it consistently. The polls showing him at 4-5% are polling all registered Dems of which he will need only about 4% to win this primary.
Chuck has been boasting about his volunteer numbers since he hit 5,000 last year. He now has well over 6,000 that have signed up at his site or at an event but the fact of the matter is that he has more people canvassing for him that he doesn't even know about. In my county we have more people canvassing then not and we will visit an average of over 600 homes per volunteer.
The point being even if only a third of his volunteers decide to give up only one day to canvassing he'll get his message out to more people then he'll need votes in only a day.
Casey voters on the other hand have no motivation to get out to the polls for primary day. This, along with the fact that he has unusually high % of support who don't know anything about him equals a low turn out for him. Since the expected Voting Eligible Percentage is 8 for this race I bet he will see more like 2-5. Chuck about 85-97%.
Chuck's support have many very good reasons to show up and they will.
Post a Comment
Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
<< Home