Iraq War Frames ‘06 Vote in Last Poll Before Election

NYT Final Poll Before Election is filled with bad news for Republicans.

A substantial majority of Americans expect Democrats to reduce or end American military involvement in Iraq if they win control of Congress next Tuesday, and say Republicans would maintain or increase troop levels to try to win the war if they hold on to power on Capitol Hill, according to the final New York Times/CBS News poll before the midterm election.

The poll found that just 29 percent of Americans approve of the way President Bush is managing the war in Iraq, matching the lowest mark of his presidency. Nearly 70 percent of Americans said Mr. Bush did not have a plan to end the war, and an overwhelming 80 percent said Mr. Bush’s latest effort to rally public support for the conflict amounted to a change in language but not policy.

The poll underlined the extent to which the war has framed the midterm elections. Americans cited Iraq as the most important issue affecting their vote, and majorities of Republicans and Democrats said they wanted a change in the government’s approach to the war. Only 20 percent said they thought the United States was winning in Iraq, down from a high of 36 percent in January.

Even beyond the war, the Times/CBS News poll, like most polls taken this fall, included worrisome indicators for Republicans as they go into the final days of a campaign in which many of them are bracing for a loss of seats in both the Houser and the Senate.

In a year when there are many close races, and where the parties’ success at turning out their voters could prove key, Democrats were more enthusiastic than Republicans about voting and more likely to say they would support their party’s candidates, though Republicans were slightly more likely to say they would turn out.

Fifty percent of independent voters, a closely watched segment of the electorate in such polarized times, said they intended to vote for the Democratic candidate, versus 23 percent who said they would vote for a Republican.